This post covers work done by several researchers at, visitors to and collaborators of ARC, including Zihao Chen, George Robinson, David Matolcsi, Jacob Stavrianos, Jiawei Li and Michael Sklar. Thanks to Aryan Bhatt,
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In 2025, ARC has been making conceptual and theoretical progress at the fastest pace that I've seen since I first interned in 2022. Most of this progress has come about because
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Former ARC researcher David Matolcsi has put together a sequence of posts that explores ARC's big-picture vision for our research and examines several obstacles that we face.
We think these posts
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In a recent paper in Annals of Mathematics and Philosophy, Fields medalist Timothy Gowers asks why mathematicians sometimes believe that unproved statements are likely to be true. For example, it is unknown whether
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Over the last few months, ARC has released a number of pieces of research. While some of these can be independently motivated, there is also a more unified research vision behind them. The
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ARC recently released our first empirical paper: Estimating the Probabilities of Rare Language Model Outputs. In this work, we construct a simple setting for low probability estimation — single-token argmax sampling in transformers — and
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Last week, ARC released a paper called Towards a Law of Iterated Expectations for Heuristic Estimators, which follows up on previous work on formalizing the presumption of independence. Most of the work described
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